I don’t know if it’s fair to say that the dust has actually settled—the NBA is already heading full-bore into free agency—but the 2022 draft has come to an end after an extremely memorable night, which began with one of the biggest twists at No. 1 in recent memory, as the Magic took Paolo Banchero. I’m running on fumes and have no patience for writing long introductions anymore, but everyone’s favorite draft postmortem column is back again. Let’s just get into it and unpack this thing.
Behind the Magic’s big surprise
Let’s start with the biggest story of the night: the Magic successfully pulled off a nearly impossible information-era feat picking at the top of the draft, concealing their intention to select Paolo Banchero at No. 1 until essentially an hour before the draft. In all my years covering the draft, I’ve never seen a team with the top pick preserve the mystery the way Orlando did: most of the various figures I trust around the NBA acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding who the Magic would take, but from connecting the various dots (insignificant ones, as it turned out), the signs had been pointing to Jabari Smith Jr. at No. 1. That’s what I thought was happening, but there was no way to be totally certain, as Orlando had been radio silent ever since the lottery, as is their way of doing business.
The Magic ran a long, thoughtful predraft process, eventually landing on Banchero, but had concealed their plan so well that not even Banchero had any idea they were taking him. As I understand it, Orlando essentially avoided making him even seem like a real candidate, expressing far more outward interest in Smith and Holmgren. As of last week, Banchero’s camp was unsure if Orlando was even seriously considering him for the top pick.However, there was quiet interest: entering this week (and as was reflected in Monday’s mock draft), my understanding was that Banchero was scheduled to come to Orlando for a visit on Sunday. It’s unclear to me whether he ever actually made that trip—the rumor was that it had been canceled—but he did have a series of Zoom calls with Magic brass on Wednesday. Whatever was discussed, as I understand it, there was no additional sense of certainty for Banchero to glean from those interactions. The only true hint at a surprise outcome came from Vegas, where the betting odds sharply swung toward Banchero on Wednesday night, making him a surprise favorite to go No. 1 after sitting third behind Smith and Holmgren for most of the month.
The best part of all this is that Banchero pretty much found out the way we found out. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski sent some tweets in the hour before the draft that pointed to him as the top pick in increasingly less cryptic fashion, but from my understanding, Banchero didn’t know what to believe until he heard his name called. The genuine surprise and emotion we saw from him in the green room—plus a gaudy but memorable purple suit—made for one of the best draft-day moments in some time. In any sport, it’s exceedingly rare that the top pick goes into the draft not knowing that he or she is the top pick.
If we had eliminated all pretense about who was the favorite 48 hours ago and purely looked at the fit with the Magic’s roster, Banchero’s ballhandling and passing at his size make a whole lot of sense. Orlando doesn’t have a true point guard and needed a connective fulcrum, and Banchero can play all over the floor and put pressure on defenses with his vision, strength and scoring ability. Smith was my No. 1 prospect in the draft and the player I would have selected, but I had Banchero at No. 2, and objectively, taking my own feelings as a scout out of this, the Magic’s decision makes a lot of sense the more you think about it.
The lingering question here is why the Magic felt the need to be this secretive about what they were doing, considering that, well, nobody was picking in front of them. It’s likely that they didn’t even land on a final decision until this week. It’s also possible they wanted to maximize their leverage in potential trade-back opportunities. When Orlando was on the clock and Banchero chatter was flying, I wondered if they were trying to bait Houston into trading up. Evidently, he was their man either way. Regardless, this was an impressive feat that’s exceptionally difficult to pull off, and you have to tip your cap to Jeff Weltman and his staff. We’ll see whether the pick pays off for them in the end.