With twelve Premier League fixtures already gone, we’re encroaching upon the ever-chaotic winter portion of the campaign. The games come thick and fast and there will be three rounds before the end of next weekend, with Premier League fixtures scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday as well. But few games during that time match the same magnitude as Liverpool vs Chelsea. There’s plenty of bad blood between the two teams and both will want to reach fourth place at a minimum by the time the curtain closes on the Premier League in May. So how will Saturday’s clash pan out? Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the 5.30pm kickoff…
What History Tells Us
Few Premier League fixtures boast the same parity as this one throughout the last 25 years. Indeed, Liverpool and Chelsea have claimed exactly the same number of points against each other – 69 – with an equal number of wins and draws. Chelsea are only slightly ahead in terms of clean sheets and goals scored too, although they’ve incurred twice the number of red cards and Liverpool’s win rate against Chelsea at Anfield is more than double that of Saturday’s visitors. Another positive for the Reds is that the Blues haven’t actually beat them in the top flight since 2014. The current run is the fourth time they’ve gone undefeated against the west Londoners for five games or more.
Referee influence – Michael Oliver
We’ve already been given a warning Michael Oliver spells bad news for Chelsea; one of the two red cards he’s dealt out this season came during the only Blues match he’s officiated – sending off David Luiz against Arsenal. While many would argue that decision was justified, Oliver’s strict style would seem to impact the Blues far more than the Reds, with Saturday’s visitors ranking higher this season for tackles, fouls, yellow cards and red cards. Oliver is quicker to the whistle than most referees, as the statistics show, and considering the set piece prowess Philippe Coutinho provides Liverpool with, that could prove to be a deciding factor if Chelsea give away too many free kicks close to their own box. One silver lining for Chelsea, though, is that 40% of the matches Oliver’s officiated this season have ended in away wins. Taking all three points back to west London would be a huge result for Antonio Conte’s side.
Expected starting XIs
Liverpool’s starting Xi is relatively set at this point in the season, but the big debate centres around the engine room. While Jordan Henderson has been an almost constant at the base of midfield this season, Jurgen Klopp has a wide variety of options to choose from for the other two slots – namely Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, James Milner, Georginio Wijnaldum, Emre Can, Philippe Coutinho and Emre Can. We expect the respective guile and power of the latter duo to be utilised in front of Henderson on Saturday. On top of that, there’s the potential that Alberto Moreno will pay the price for a poor performance in the 3-3 draw with Sevilla in midweek, giving away free kicks and penalties that the Spanish side scored from. Those issues aside though, Liverpool are almost certain to stick with their customary 4-3-3 formation with the usual suspects in attack.
Chelsea have become almost synonymous with 3-4-3 under Antonio Conte but their last Premier League outing saw a five-man midfield with Eden Hazard operating just behind Alvaro Morata up front and that could well be the case against Liverpool on Sunday, not least because it offers more protection away from home – although the Blues did revert back to their usual setup for the 4-0 win over Qarabag in midweek. There’s a chance David Luiz’s experience may be preferred to Andres Christensen at the heart of defence while summer Antonio Rudiger may come in as well. It’s more than likely, however, that Conte will stick with the same XI he used against West Brom.
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